Dubbed the “Nostradamus” of predicting presidential election results by using his famous “Keys to the White House,” historian Allan Lichtman will debut a different set of keys focused on evaluating presidential greatness in a new book coming out next month.
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“Great American Presidents: The Twelve Who Transformed the Nation” will be on shelves Sept. 22, and the distinguished history professor at American University is already working on the natural follow-up book — “Worst American Presidents.”
He says that will certainly feature the current president.
“Donald Trump will definitively be making an appearance in my worst presidents book, along with a rogues gallery of presidents like James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, Herbert Hoover,” Lichtman told Raw Story.
In “Great American Presidents,” Lichtman includes a preliminary ranking of modern presidents since Ronald Reagan, putting Trump at the very bottom.
“We have never seen a president who so fundamentally threatens American democracy. He has openly said, ‘As president, I can do anything I want.’ Not surprisingly, he cozies up to the dictators of the world,” Lichtman said.
“He seems to be bringing this dictatorial, authoritarian approach to American politics. We’ve also seen the fact that he bases his presidency on blatant lies … Not to mention the fact that his policies have been an abject disaster.”
Lichtman presents in the book 10 keys to presidential greatness, focused on “the consequences of the president, not necessarily whether you agree with everything they’ve done.” Types of keys range from how presidents handled crises to their moral vision and narrative abilities.
Franklin D. Roosevelt tops Lichtman’s list, followed by Abraham Lincoln.
Lyndon B. Johnson might surprise some with the third highest ranking, but Lichtman argues Johnson’s “extraordinary depth and breadth of domestic accomplishment … merits the designation as a great president, despite the tragedy of Vietnam.”
That legacy includes the development of the Voting Rights Act, the Civil Rights Act and Medicare and Medicaid programs during his presidency.
Another surprise among great American presidents might be the lesser known James K. Polk, Lichtman said, who ranked him 11th in the top 12.
“Although a one-term president, a racist, an imperialist, James K. Polk transformed the nation,” Lichtman said.
“He basically doubled the size of the continental United States.
While Lichtman’s book looks at more than 200 years of American presidents, he argues this type of book is needed today “to show that we can achieve great leadership,” particularly as polled Americans overwhelmingly express disapproval with the direction of the country.
On Monday, Trump’s approval rating hit its lowest point at 33 percent, according to new Reuters/Ipsos polling.
“We can put into place presidents who transform and redeem the nation,” Lichtman said. “’Great American Presidents’ is, I think, the needed antidote to the despair that so many Americans seem to be showing right now. It shows what our nation can become.”
‘Pivotal’
Lichtman’s keys indicate that the U.S. has lacked a great president since Reagan due to “the increasing complexity and difficulty of the office, the increasing polarization of our politics.”
The midterms will be “pivotal” as the policy achievements of some of Lichtman’s greatest presidents are at stake under Trump’s leadership, he said.
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“This is the biggest backlash against voting rights that we’ve seen since the end of Reconstruction and the adoption of Jim Crow in the South,” Lichtman said.
“We’re also seeing the undermining of other great initiatives of Lyndon Johnson. For example, the so-called Big Beautiful Bill — I call it the Big Ugly Bill — gives huge tax breaks to big corporations and the rich.”
Lichtman agrees with the prediction of a much-discussed blue wave in the November elections, giving Democrats control of the House again. Senate control shifting to Democrats seems to be about a “50-50” chance, and the “gerrymandering war that Trump started” might backfire, Lichtman said.
“Are we going to redeem the domestic legacy of Franklin Roosevelt, Johnson, or are we going to move into a new era in which public policy favors the wealthy and undermines support for the more marginal and less affluent peoples in this country?”
However, the blue wave in the midterms relies on the elections being “free and fair,” which is of particular concern to Lichtman as Trump continues to push lies about election fraud since 2020.
“When Trump talks about election integrity, that’s just code word for his interfering in elections,” Lichtman said.
The Justice Department announced on Tuesday last week plans to deploy 1,000 federal monitors to polling places for the midterms.
“In my view, it is a direct attempt at election interference and rigging,” Lichtman said.
‘Come out of the darkness’
“Great American Presidents” attempts to “codify historical judgment” in a similar way to how Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” applied mathematical models used to predict earthquakes to election prediction.
“Like the ‘Keys to the White House,’ which were the world’s only do-it-yourself presidential prediction system, the ‘10 Keys’ enables anyone to be a do-it-yourself evaluator of presidents,” Lichtman said.
Lichtman had a near-perfect presidential election prediction record for more than 40 years using the model until Kamala Harris lost the 2024 presidential election.
Unprecedented disruptions of the Democrats publicly “trashing” their nominee in incumbent President Joe Biden before replacing him with Harris and the prevalence of misinformation during that election caused a break in the model, Lichtman said.
Misinformation will continue to be a concern in elections going forward, but Lichtman remains hopeful for other great presidents after Trump’s term ends.
“After a period of weak and failed presidencies, you often get a great president,” Lichtman said.
“I’m always the optimist. One thing I’ve learned from the study of history: at times when things have seemed most bleak for the country, somehow we’ve turned the corner and come out of the darkness.”
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