A veteran conservative election analyst is sounding the alarm about polling trends that could threaten Republicans’ control of the Senate.
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Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center, examined recent polls in a Washington Post opinion piece. The review left him with a stark warning for Republicans.
“So can Republicans carry on in confidence that election night will go better than the ‘skewed’ polls suggest? Not so fast,” Olsen wrote Wednesday. “Those surveys that do release detailed cross tabulations establish some trends that should worry, if not frighten, the GOP.”
Olsen pointed to polls showing Democrats more united behind their candidates than Republicans. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton averages 84% support from GOP voters, while Democratic state Rep. James Talarico draws 93% from his party.
Republicans are also struggling with independent voters in the Lone Star State, Ohio, Iowa and Michigan, Olsen wrote.
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“It’s hard to win races even in deep-red states when you’re losing independents by large margins, especially if some of your partisan support is slipping away,” he warned.
Olsen also noted that fewer voters are identifying as Republicans and that registration trends in Pennsylvania and North Carolina have shifted against the GOP.
“The overall picture that emerges is a bit murky, it’s true, but it’s not a good one for Republicans,” Olsen concluded. If the GOP cannot rebuild its support, he added, “the turgid waters become crystal clear — and deeply blue — come November.”
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