President Donald Trump has pronounced the Strait of Hormuz open for business with his much ballyhooed peace agreement with Iran, declaring “ships of the world, start your engines.”
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“Well,” reported NPR. “Not so fast.”
The 80-year-old president’s declaration is running into the messy reality of post-conflict shipping. After announcing a peace agreement with Iran and proclaiming that vessels could resume passage, the situation on the water tells a more complicated story: Roughly 1,500 ships, including numerous oil tankers, remain stranded in the Persian Gulf awaiting clearance to leave.
The backlog stems from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, during which traffic through the Strait dropped sharply from its typical 140 ships per day after Iranian forces struck vessels with drones and missiles and seeded the waterway with mines.
U.S. Central Command spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins confirmed that American forces have begun clearing mines and established an alternate route near Oman, though he declined to estimate a timeline. Britain and France are now joining the demining effort, with the UK deploying autonomous underwater drones, counter-drone systems, Typhoon jets and the warship HMS Dragon.
A U.S. official struck a cautiously optimistic note, saying traffic along the southern route is already climbing toward two dozen ships daily and could reach 40 to 50 soon, with the full Strait reopening as early as Friday and a return to normalcy expected within 30 days.
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RAND engineer Scott Savitz called that timeline plausible given the number of Iranian minelaying vessels destroyed, but shipping industry representatives are less certain. Tom Bartošák-Harlow of the International Chamber of Shipping said companies will need repeated assurances, not just one announcement, before confidence returns.
A separate dispute concerns money. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have insisted the Strait will remain free of charges, but Iran has signaled it may impose “service fees” rather than tolls for navigation and environmental support. Naval War College strategist James Holmes argued that distinction carries no weight under international law, since coastal states have no legal basis for charging vessels to transit a natural waterway regardless of terminology.
Whether the Trump administration treats a “fee” the same as a “toll” once the agreement’s full terms emerge remains an open question, leaving both the safety and economics of reopening the Strait unresolved.
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