Republicans face a significant test in the Texas Senate race that could shape future elections, according to one political analyst.
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Republicans are spending big to retain outgoing Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-TX) seat in Texas. State Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico are facing off in the November election, which political analyst David Pakman noted on a new episode of his self-titled podcast will test the strength of one of the Republican Party’s most reliable voter bases.
“Obviously, there are the immediate implications of if Texas elects a Democratic senator for the first time in decades, it would make a huge difference for control of the Senate right now,” Pakman said. “But I want to go bigger than that. There’s another possibility that I find a lot more interesting. What if James Talarico winning exposes a vulnerability in the modern Republican coalition that goes far beyond 2026? Because for decades, one of the most reliable Republican constituencies has been white evangelical Christians.”
Pakman cited recent Pew polling that found about 85% of evangelicals align politically with Republicans. However, Pakman argued that Talarico has several qualities that might make him attractive to those voters, especially those who have grown tired of President Donald Trump’s antics.
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For instance, Pakman noted that Talarico is a pastor who studied at seminary, and that “challenges the political identity that Republicans have benefitted from.”
Pakman argued that Talarico’s success at courting evangelical voters might put other Republican held districts in play for Democrats.
“That could be a big deal,” Pakman said.
“This is a test of whether one of the relationships that has held the Republican coalition together is a little bit of an automatic,” he added.
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