CNN’s Harry Enten was surprised by the polling data for Vice President JD Vance, who’s considered a frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
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The 41-year-old vice president has taken an active role in defending the nebulous agreement to end the war in Iran and has been promoting his forthcoming memoir, “Communion,” and the network’s chief data analyst told “CNN News Central” that prediction markets had soured on his chances.
“Become the Republican nominee, they have been tumbling, they have been falling down,” Enten said. “What are we talking about? A real closing here since the beginning of the year. Chance to be the 2028 GOP nominee, you know, you go back a few months ago. Look at this, clear favorite, 50 percent chance, Marco Rubio way back there at 11 [percent]. But look at this, the gap is closing, it is closing. Yes, Vance is still the nominal favorite. But Marco Rubio right behind him at 28 percent.”
“So, you know, what happened during that period?” Enten added. “Obviously, the Iran war happened during that period, and that made JD Vance’s chances tumble and has made Marco Rubio’s chances go right up – it’s neck and neck.”
Vance enjoyed am 81-75 approval rating lead among Republicans over Rubio in January, but the secretary of state now holds a 77-69 advantage among GOP voters, and Enten dug deeper into the vice president’s popularity.
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“You know what I always say, you go to a home state, the people who know you best,” Enten said. “That to me oftentimes gives you an idea of their political future, and on this one, take a look here. Now, this is the general electorate. But Vance’s net favorability rating in Ohio, you know, you go back to the 2024 election, he was at plus-five points. Even in Ohio, in JD Vance’s home state, among the electorate overall, he is underwater among independents. Look at this, he’s 27 points underwater. JD Vance, not so popular in the Buckeye State.”
In his new book, Vance walks back his smear against “childless cat ladies” in the Democratic Party, but Enten found the damage has already been done.
“How is he doing among women, among men?” Enten said. “Well, he’s underwater with both of them. Among men, he’s slightly underwater at minus-two points. Of course, if you’re a Republican, you need to be popular with men if you’re going to win a national election. Among women, he is way underwater, he’s 26 points underwater, and the gender gap in the Quinnipiac University poll, when you match them up against other Republicans in the Trump cabinet, the highest, the largest gender gap, it actually belonged to JD Vance.”
“He doesn’t need to win women if he’s going to win in 2028,” Enten added, “but he can’t be this unpopular among them.”
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