President Donald Trump’s shifting relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could be a boon for Vice President JD Vance’s 2028 presidential ambitions, an analyst reported on Wednesday.
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Jonathan V. Last, editor of The Bulwark, explained that a split between America and Israel could redefine the MAGA coalition. Although Vance is in a tough position with pro-war Republicans furious over the surrender and blaming the vice president — instead of Trump — he could also win over America First isolationists who have been skeptical of the relationship with Israel.
“Playing the part of Trump’s surrender monkey queers Vance with both wings of MAGA,” Last wrote.
But there could be more to it for the vice president, who was skeptical of the war to begin with.
“The best thing that could happen for Vance would be Trump souring on Israel,” Last wrote.
“Israel will be one of the big cleavages in the post-Trump GOP,” Last wrote. “The rising, young segment of the base is . . . skeptical of America’s relationship with Israel. But the establishment wing of MAGA remains pro-Israel. So long as Trump was wedded to Israel and Bibi Netanyahu, Vance was going to have to tread lightly. He’d have to signal enough of his Israel skepticism to keep the Tucker-wing of MAGA guessing while staying publicly aligned with Trump.”
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If that changes, and Trump does turn on Israel, it could reveal a different future MAGA.
“Netanyahu has tried to undermine the deal. He is likely to fail because Trump needs to end the war, period. Which leaves Netanyahu with a choice,” Last wrote.
The Israeli prime minister could examine two potential options: pretend Trump’s deal is a good one and try to convince the Israeli public it is, or condemn the deal and break away from Trump.
Trump has criticized Netanyahu, calling him “crazy,” and as the president’s popularity has dropped in Israel, it could reveal that Israelis have soured on Trump — and Republicans might not have realized this as fast as Israelis have, Last explained.
“Vance has neither of those advantages and on top of that, he’s a bad politician,” Last wrote. “He’s good at managing up, not pandering down. My guess is that Vance has taken stock of the situation and realized that he may be over a barrel now, but there is a path for him. If he leans into Iran, takes ownership of Trump’s surrender, then he can take advantage of any Trump-Israel schism and exit this war in a reasonably strong position with the Republican base.”
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